Explaining the Real Exchange Rate during Sudden Stops and Tranquil Periods

This paper untangles the causes behind real exchange rate devaluation events with particular attention paid to the Sudden Stop of capital flows. By utilizing cumulative impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis, we argue that there is the asymmetric response across Sudden Stop and tranquil times. Further comparison across the Sudden Stop in the 80s (gdebt crisish) and 90s (gSudden Stop crisish), however, reveals that the Sudden Stop disturbance has become more prominent in explaining the real exchange rate disturbance in Sudden Stop crisis of the 1990s rather than debt crisis of the 1980s.Exchange rate depreciation, Capital flows, Sudden Stop, Asia, and Latin America

Experience of Asian Asset Management Companies (AMCs): Do they Increase Moral Hazard? - Evidence from Thailand

This paper examines the performances of Asian asset management companies (AMCs). The analysis reveals that AMCs vary in their design and performance. Asset management companies can trigger moral hazard- inspired bank lending. Empirical examination of the Thai experience reveals that the moral hazard-inspired bank lending resulted in creating more new NPLs in the case of public asset management companies. Alternatively, the centralized Thai Asset Management Company (TAMC) decreases the new NPL ratio, suggesting that TAMC provokes no adverse moral hazard effect on financial institutions.Bank restructuring, Asset Management Company, Thailand, Moral Hazard, Asia Financial Crisis

Experience of Crisis-Hit Asian Countries: Do Asset Management Companies Increase Moral Hazard?

This paper examines the performances of Asian asset management companies (AMCs). The analysis reveals that the AMCs vary significantly in their design and performances. The authors claim that AMCs can trigger moral hazard-inspired bank lending, especially when the mode of transfer of nonperforming loans (NPLs) from banks to AMCs entails little cost to banks. The new centralized AMC, the Thai Asset Management Company (TAMC), on the other hand, decreased the new NPL ratio, suggesting that TAMC provokes no adverse moral hazard effect on financial institutions. In addition, they find that the same institutional consideration significantly decreases new NPL in foreign banks and finance companies.Asian financial crisis, bank restructuring, asset management company (AMC), Thailand, moral hazard, nonperforming loans (NPLs)

Financial integration in East Asia

This paper examines the degree of integration into world financial markets and the impacts on several key macroeconomic variables of selected East Asian economies, and draws policy implications. According to our analysis, the degrees of integration into world financial markets in those economies are increasing. Regarding the impacts of increasing integration into world financial markets on several macroeconomic variables, we find three results. First, casual two-way plots among macroeconomic variables do not support the theoretical prediction of reduction in relative consumption volatility. Second, the saving-investment correlation is higher than those of in Euro area economies. Third, the degrees of smoothing of idiosyncratic shock by cross-holding of financial assets are lower than Euro area economies. Those results suggest two policy implications. First, there's some room for improvement in welfare gains in those economies by further risk sharing. Second, holding all other conditions given, the increasing integration into world financial markets alone is unlikely to provide a sound ground for a currency union in East Asia at this stage.

The Determinants and Long-term Projections of Saving Rates in Developing Asia

In this paper, we present data on trends over time in domestic saving rates in twelve economies in developing Asia during the 1966-2007 period and analyze the determinants of these trends. We find that domestic saving rates in developing Asia have, in general, been high and rising but that there have been substantial differences from economy to economy and that the main determinants of these trends appear to have been the age structure of the population (especially the aged dependency ratio), income levels, and the level of financial sector development. We then project future trends in domestic saving rates in developing Asia for the 2011-2030 period based on our estimation results and find that the domestic saving rate in developing Asia as a whole will remain roughly constant during the next two decades despite rapid population aging in some economies in developing Asia because population aging will occur much later in other economies and because the negative impact of population aging on the domestic saving rate will be largely offset by the positive impact of higher income levels.

Financial Integration in East Asia

This paper examines the degree of integration into world financial markets and the impacts on several key macroeconomic variables of selected East Asian economies, and draws policy implications. According to our analysis, the degrees of integration into world financial markets in those economies are increasing. Regarding the impacts of increasing integration into world financial markets on several macroeconomic variables, we find three results. First, casual two-way plots among macroeconomic variables do not support the theoretical prediction of reduction in relative consumption volatility. Second, the saving-investment correlation is higher than those of the euro area economies. Third, the degrees of smoothing of idiosyncratic shock by cross-holding of financial assets are lower than the euro area economies. These results suggest two policy implications. First, there is some room for improvement in welfare gains in those economies by means of further risk sharing. Second, holding all other conditions equal, the increasing integration into world financial markets alone is unlikely to provide a sound ground for a currency union in East Asia at this stage.Exchange rate regime, financial integration, risk sharing

Role of debt maturity on firms´ fixed assets during sudden stop episodes: Evidence from Thailand

This paper studies the detrimental effect of sudden stops on the growth of Thai firms’ fixed assets. We focus on the fixed assets adjustment that firms undertake at times of financial constraints. We derive our results from balance sheet data for 284 nonfinancial Thai listed firms. Our data demonstrate that Thai firms faced severe declines in the growth of their fixed assets starting in 1996. Regression results demonstrate, after controlling for firms’ characteristics and lagged dependent variables, that a longer-term debt maturity structure is the factor that works in the firms’ favor during sudden stop episodes, while it is their profitability that matters during tranquil periods.sudden stops, Thailand, debt maturity structure, Asian financial crisis

Gender Pay Gap: A Macro Perspective

This paper examines the factors influencing the gender wage gap by using an unbalanced cross-country aggregated panel data set for a sample covering 53 economies for the period 1995–2010. Using robust estimators proposed by Lewbel (2012) to correct for heterogeneity and endogeneity, results suggest that a higher female share in the industry sector tends to widen the gender wage gap regardless of a country’s development stage. While having more children widens the gender wage gap, as expected, the effect is only statistically significant for developing countries. In developed countries, more labor force participation by women seems to narrow the gender wage gap, probably due to the number of female labor market entrants taking up higher-paying service sector jobs. For developing countries, closing the gender gaps in labor force participation and education is not sufficient to achieve gender wage parity. Higher-paying jobs should be created by developing the service sector in these economies